{"id":31345,"date":"2026-01-20T18:15:48","date_gmt":"2026-01-20T16:15:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.orange1.eu\/news\/2026-adattarsi-al-cambiamento-o-restare-in-balia-degli-eventi\/"},"modified":"2026-01-20T18:19:53","modified_gmt":"2026-01-20T16:19:53","slug":"2026-adapt-to-change-or-be-at-the-mercy-of-events","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.orange1.eu\/en\/news\/2026-adapt-to-change-or-be-at-the-mercy-of-events\/","title":{"rendered":"2026: Adapt to Change or Be at the Mercy of Events"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We have entered 2026 in a world marked by radical choices, where the logic of international relations appears to have shifted decisively toward unilateral power, rather than the multilateralism of recent decades. Donald Trump\u2019s second term in the White House has marked this transition: an explicit return to power politics, where \u201cthe strongest decide,\u201d at the expense of shared rules that had long sought to govern state relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A first striking symbol of this shift<\/strong> emerged in early 2026 with the U.S. military operation in Venezuela, which led to the capture of President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro and his partner, transported to the U.S. to face criminal charges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A historic and controversial precedent<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Washington\u2019s move\u2014including attacks on Venezuelan military infrastructure and the extraction operation targeting Maduro\u2014sparked diplomatic shocks across major world capitals. International organizations such as the UN have already scrutinized the legality of this action, while powers like Russia, China, and several Latin American countries have denounced it as a violation of sovereignty and international law. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/legality-us-capture-venezuelas-maduro-focus-united-nations-2026-01-04\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Former Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodr\u00edguez was declared \u201cinterim president\u201d by domestic institutions, in a context of extreme uncertainty regarding the legitimacy of any new Venezuelan government. <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/b352b5af17deb0ab78684b8398045179?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">AP News<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This episode may be remembered as a watershed in international history, comparable to major interventionist chapters of the last century, with the key difference that it occurs in the heart of Latin America and before the eyes of a globally connected public in real time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A Year of Decisive Choices<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this scenario, 2026 is shaping up as a year of historic decisions for global actors:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Europe and the Atlantic Alliance<\/strong><br>Brussels and major member states will have to contend with an increasingly unpredictable ally\u2014the United States. Managing relations with Washington will require balancing the defense of multilateralism with responding to unilateral pressures that challenge Western cohesion.<\/li><li><strong>The War in Ukraine and a New European Balance<\/strong><br>The conflict in Ukraine remains unresolved. In 2026, it will be crucial to determine whether European powers can pool sufficient resources and political will for a sustainable negotiation, or whether the war will continue in a new stalemate with serious consequences for regional security.<\/li><li><strong>The Middle East: A Test of Stability<\/strong><br>The fragile truce in the Middle East enters its most complex political phase. Managing ceasefires, internal and external pressures for peace, and the role of global powers will determine whether the region can emerge from the cycle of conflicts that has defined it for over a decade.<\/li><li><strong>New Fronts of Global Competition<\/strong><br>Competition is no longer only about territory and resources: it now extends to space, technology, and artificial intelligence. Countries such as China, the United States, the EU, and emerging powers are heavily investing in autonomous space and AI capabilities, which are becoming essential instruments of power in the new century.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Adapt or Resist<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The key question for 2026 is: adapt to change or remain at the mercy of events?<br>In a world where the power of states can scale up rapidly\u2014as demonstrated by events in Venezuela\u2014medium, small, and mid-sized nations face two paths:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Adapt<\/strong>, reformulating alliances, strategies, and national policies according to new balances.<\/li><li><strong>Resist<\/strong>, attempting to maintain an autonomous role and defending international law, even at the risk of economic or political conflict.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ability of international actors to <strong>understand and respond proactively<\/strong> will define not only the course of 2026 but also the future balance of a rapidly changing world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Impact on the Metals Supply Chain: Steel and Copper at the Center of New Tensions<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In an increasingly fragmented geopolitical context, consequences extend beyond diplomacy to directly affect industrial supply chains, particularly for strategic metals such as <strong>steel and copper<\/strong>, which are essential for global manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A return to power-driven logic and more protectionist industrial policies increases the risk of <strong>trade barriers, sanctions, export controls, and price volatility<\/strong>. Steel, already subject to tariffs and defensive measures in recent years, could again become a focal point of tension between major economic blocks, affecting availability, costs, and delivery times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Copper, a key metal for the energy transition, electrification, and technological development, faces dual pressures: growing global demand and political and social instability in strategic production areas. Sudden events, such as regime changes, conflicts, or external interventions, can quickly result in <strong>production interruptions or price spikes<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the manufacturing sector, 2026 could therefore be a year in which <strong>supply chain risk management<\/strong> becomes as critical as product innovation. Diversifying suppliers, increasing inventory attention, establishing long-term agreements, and continuously monitoring the international context are no longer optional choices\u2014they are strategic levers to ensure production continuity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a world where uncertainty is structural, the ability to read geopolitical signals and translate them into operational decisions will be a decisive competitive advantage.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We have entered 2026 in a world marked by radical choices, where the logic of international relations appears to have &#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"bold text-decoration-none understrap-read-more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.orange1.eu\/en\/news\/2026-adapt-to-change-or-be-at-the-mercy-of-events\/\"><span class=\"single-more-link\">Read more <span class=\"freccia-link\">\u2192<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":31347,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31345","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.orange1.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31345","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.orange1.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.orange1.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.orange1.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.orange1.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31345"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.orange1.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31345\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31349,"href":"https:\/\/www.orange1.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31345\/revisions\/31349"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.orange1.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31347"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.orange1.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31345"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.orange1.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31345"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.orange1.eu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31345"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}